Libya: The Franco-British convergence vs. The regime struggle

By African Bulletin on May 10, 2011

In Libya, the French and British were behind the military intervention and U N resolution 1973 to assist and protect the civilians. They probably did so in order to respond very quickly, and among other considerations, to the worsening human situation in Libya and to better justify their quick retrieval. Today, more than ever, the English and the French are deeply involved in the Libyan case and have to guarantee the political success of their intervention there.

With the Libyan case and to catch up with its diplomatic blunder towards Tunisia, France has found the time ripe enough to abandon its traditional “realpolitik” on which it relied on within its Arab world policy.   For the Brits, it’s another calculation that prevailed in their new tactics to prove that the country is no longer just a follower and aligned with the United States. London wants to demonstrate that it has an autonomous capacity to take decisions and actions. This Franco-British convergence has enabled both countries to pool their forces, and align the NATO political branch with the military approach. But the Libyan population is fractionalized between the rebels and the loyalists to the regime, insisting in wasteful struggles for power, and huge resources are being wasted on fighting from both sides. The struggle to get rid of the actual regime will demand huge sacrifices and extensive fighting in spite of a low probability of an immediate success, because a lot is at stake. For the regime, the question is whether or not to keep old privileges and power. For the rebels, it is a question of whether or not to remain suppressed. Both sides know that if a change came it would be lasting. This in part explains the long persistent will to fight and self-sacrifice at both sides in the conflicts. The severity of the conflict is proportional to total fighting efforts. The rebels are more conflict prone than the richer regime and the opportunity cost of fighting is thus also low and the extent of fighting is therefore high; unfortunately the death toll too.  So, for how long the Franco-British convergence will resist? Because the long struggle for power by the incumbent regime may last.