Recent Attacks highpoints increasing terror threat in West Africa

By African Bulletin on January 20, 2016

The spectre of terrorism now hovers over much of the region. During the past 12 months alone, two other Sahelian capitals – Bamako and N’Djamena – also experienced their first ever jihadist incidents. Moreover, the Ouagadougou attack signifies a continuing shift in the modus operandi of Sahelian terror groups. From 2013 to 2015, Islamist forces in northern Mali typically concentrated on targeting UN and foreign military personnel with mortar and IED attacks. However, the latest assault by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM) on civilians at the Cappuccino café and the Splendid hotel echoes al-Mourabitoun’s attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako in November 2015, in which the Malian-based group took 170 guests hostage. Containing the expanding reach of terrorist groups will require enhanced regional cooperation, as Mali’s prime minister stressed earlier this week. Nevertheless, the reported merger of the two Islamist militant groups, both of which have operated in Mali since 2012, is likely to reinforce their capabilities and increase the threat level for Western personnel operating in West Africa.

UN peacekeepers and Malian army unable to tackle persistent terror threat

Despite the success of Operation Serval, which saw French and Chadian troops drive Islamist terrorists out of the cities of Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal in 2013, northern Mali remains a haven for militants. Although the Bamako government concluded a peace deal with Tuareg-led armed rebels in June 2015, the authorities have negligible control over the three northern regions. The large expanses of uninhabited desert provide an ideal environment for training exercises and evading capture. Jihadists also have easy access to bountiful supplies of weapons from Libya.

Even the presence of around 10,000 UN peacekeepers in northern Mali continues to have little impact on the security landscape. Having already suffered one of the highest casualty rates of any UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA forces are largely preoccupied with protecting themselves and their bases from attack. Indeed, several senior MINUSMA officials have privately told Verisk Maplecroft of their frustrations with the mission’s limited resources and mandate, which does not permit counter-terrorism or anti-trafficking operations.

The Malian government, though, has begun to acknowledge the importance of reducing Islamist militants’ access to weapons and their control of smuggling activities. On 11 January 2016, Mali’s foreign minister urged the UN Security Council to consider enabling MINUSMA’s troops to confront terror groups. Yet, neither MINUSMA nor the Malian government has even begun to challenge the militants’ control of lucrative trafficking routes between northern Mali, Niger, Algeria and Libya. The only capable counter-terrorism force in the region is France’s Operation Barkhane. However, the mission only comprises 3,000 troops spread over five countries, meaning that only 1,000 soldiers are permanently stationed at the Gao and Tessalit bases in north-eastern Mali. So long as France’s allies fail to offer more substantive support to the mission, Barkhane will only be effective in the tiny patches of the vast Sahel where it operates.

Niamey and Dakar are likely new targets in 2016

Niger’s capital Niamey will be on particularly high alert ahead of February’s presidential election as Islamist terrorists seek to target the country for its cooperation with the West. President Mahamadou Issoufou has been an enthusiastic supporter of French and American counter-terror efforts in the Sahel, having granted the US permission to establish two drone bases on Nigerien soil since 2013. Furthermore, Niger’s ongoing contributions to MINUSMA in Mali and the Multinational Joint Taskforce (MNJTF) combatting Boko Haram in Nigeria provide terror networks with additional reasons to attack the country.

Meanwhile, Senegal’s capital, Dakar, provides an attractive target for jihadists owing to its status as a regional hub for international organisations. The large numbers of expatriate residents and foreign visitors in Dakar mean that major hotels, restaurants and bars are vulnerable to attack. In fact, there is already evidence to suggest that militant groups have begun to develop networks in Senegal. The arrest of a Senegalese Boko Haram member in Niger in October 2015 led to the discovery of plans to create a jihadist cell in Senegal and launch an attack in Dakar.

International military coalitions have proven broadly successful at recapturing territory from terrorist organisations in Mali and Nigeria. Yet, there is little indication at present that MINUSMA, the MNJTF, or regional governments are capable of preventing attacks spreading to hitherto untouched locations. Thus, further terror incidents targeting foreign nationals in West African capitals are highly likely.

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