Egypt: managing the Nile waters, Egypt will have to cooperate

By on June 10, 2010
As a researcher in Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), Ana Cascao has built up assumptions on what was the origin of the diplomatic crisis which had set Egypt and five countries, situated in the upstream of the Nile, which signed May 14th an agreement on the sharing of the river waters?

A long time ago, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania were little populated and were able to feed their populations    with a pluvial farming. But today, it is less raining than previously, and their population grows up. They demand the right to secure their water supply and hydro-electric power by building dams. As a consequence of the domestic policy of each country and the international political change in the region due to the fact that China is gaining more influence, while Egypt is losing it; the historic inheritance as owner of the Nile is going with the wind, and Egypt has to review its “Hydro-hegemony”, because it does not have control on the sources of the river.
Ana casco, a specialist of the Nile basin, went deeper in her assumptions by stating that the real threat is not the countries upstream, but Sudan. It is the only country of the region that possesses a big agricultural potential. Projects of irrigation, which would consume a great deal of water, are ready to be lunched. But Egypt does not speak up about this alternative, because it does not wish to jeopardise the two countries alliance, for the moment. But in the medium term, Egypt will have to cooperate. It has much more to lose than to win in an armed conflict with countries upstream. On the other hand, if Sudan wants more water, it shall change all the forecasts and a conflict would be considered, because the water share downstream is not fair: 1/4 for Sudan and 3/4 for Egypt…

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