Sahel: The AQIM objectives

Louis Caprioli, the former head of the French counter-terrorism has decrypted the demands of the kidnappers of the five French Areva and Vinci employees.

He said that the kidnappers believe that the French are looting the Muslim countries and claim that France and Areva leave Niger. Their goal is the liberation of the Islamic lands, and to end the plundering by the Western countries. That is exactly the strategy developed by Bin Laden to attack the economic interests of the West. It is therefore a global project, said Capriolli. He believes that the financial requirements will not appear in their claims because they (the kidnappers) want to appear noble, but it will be done across the negotiators. However, we can expect political demands such as the French withdrawal from the region and cease of the support to Mauritania, which is now at war against AQMI. There may be demands for the release of the prisoners who had participated in the GIA attacks in 1995. It is a strategic goal for AQMI, considering itself as a successor of the “GIA”. They may also demand the release of prisoners in Mali and Mauritania. Therefore,  some questions arise as to whether France can yield to these demands or reject them; but experts, like Caprioli, think that a such assumption is impossible. The French Government is forced to say he will negotiate, but accepting is another situation. For the release of Peter Camatte, France had lobbied on Mali to free four prisoners, but to accept the release of terrorists who killed several French citizens will be very difficult and unfeasible. In the coming days, the French authorities should receive photos or a video-tape of the hostages. The jihadists will then release their specific requirements, probably through an Islamist website. Hence the real negotiations will start and therefore could likely be lengthy and difficult. However one question remains on the table: Should the victim countries keep on paying ransoms to the kidnappers, who in fine use it to plan for new  attacks on their domestic lands?