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Ivory Coast: The difficulties of an armed intervention

By on January 7, 2011
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is threatening the incumbent President, Laurent Gbagbo, of an armed intervention if he persists in his refusal to cede power to Alassane Ouattara.

But the ECOMOG force intervention is dependent on many factors that could delay its commitment, regardless of political determination. ECOMOG has already intervened in the past in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea Bissau. In case of intervention in Ivory Coast, the West African force will face the supporters of Laurent Gbagbo, heavily armed and convinced of their entitlement. In previous interventions, such as in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the situation was quite different as ECOMOG arrived in a country already plagued by civil war. The West African force has then sent men and equipment in areas controlled by local governments to help them fight the rebels. The rapid reaction force of ECOWAS can now count on 1500 men, and another contingent of 4000 troops could then intervene later, but the conditions of its appointment are to be defined. The Ivorian army is at the center of the showdown between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara. The first attempts to retain control of the army that supports him, when the second seeks to gain its support. The New Forces and former rebels are holding the north since the 2002-2003 civil war, and have given their support to Alassane Ouattara, but Laurent Gbagbo controls the south, including the economic capital Abidjan.

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