The ironic switch from the doctrine of a movement to the doctrine of a state

By African Bulletin on July 13, 2011

It was reported that the new born Republic of South Sudan and the virtual Saharawi Republic have signed last Saturday a joint communiqué about the establishment of diplomatic relations at an ambassadorial level. The joint communiqué was signed by the Polisario representative Mr. Mohamed Salem Ould Salek and the minister of foreign affairs of South Sudan Mr. Deng Alor Kuol.
According to some political experts in Ethiopia and Khartoum the agreement was motivated by two factors: The lobbying maneuvered by the Algerian diplomacy since last November 2010 and secondly the propaganda manipulation of Algiers and Pretoria taken place during the last summit of the AU.

Some observers who attended the ceremony of the announcement of the State of South Sudan ?have underestimated the impact of such incident since it took place within an exciting atmosphere full of enthusiasm and euphoria. Such circumstance is also encouraging to put celebrants under pressure and lack of estimate for long-term output. International diplomatic engineers would surely not take such ironic agreement as evidence for policy management especially if we consider that the current government of the new born state of Juba is just a caretaker government that should get used to political accountability either within the international community or at a domestic level.
On the other hand, the Crisis Conflict Unit of the International Research Group for Transregional and Emerging Area Studies -based in Tokyo- has considered the incident as serious but zero-sum value. The Group has called also the leadership of the new African state to be cautious of accessing the International Club of Nations with inaccuracy steps from day one. A Behavior that may creates prejudices on South Sudan as an agitated country similar to North Korea, Cuba, Iran and Libya.
The Statement of ITEAS has recalled that the switch from the doctrine of a movement to the doctrine of a state policy making is a difficult stage, but the new fresh ruling class of South Sudan needs to adapt its behavior to Realpolitik constraints.
The recognition of a virtual state – adds the International Research group- contradicts with the recommendations of the Security Council and the report of the UN secretary General which call all the components of the international community to encourage Polisario and Morocco to strengthen confidence building, which supports the negotiation process supervised by the United Nations, and as well as to stop all acts that may interfere with these negotiations. The ITEAS calls to deal smoothly with the situation and to open a dialogue with the new leadership and all the active bodies of South Sudan political circles not only in the case of respect for international law, but also the care of the gains of Arab solidarity, which take a clear consensus and positive attitude towards territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Morocco.
One third of Sudan territory is gone to the South with most oil fields, while refineries and pipelines are in the North, generating considerable discussions, and Sudan will not be an easy partner. The divorce was granted, but it still remains the division of properties in such manner to please the belligerents. Citizens of South Sudan say they are poor, but free. They have recovered their dignity and development will follow. However, to gain peace and stability requires accurate international behavior.
In a forum, the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, talked about the challenges of the independence of South Sudan and promised to call upon the international community for support so that the new country will not sink in repeated crisis.
In such challenges, experts advise warm regional relations and long lasting neutral positions by keeping away from existing conflicts. And for the new born South Sudan, it applies not only for Western Sahara case, but also for major international and regional disputes and feuds.